Lemonade
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.22
50.31 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $32.02 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.19%
864 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.88% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.71% – 108.67%, 864 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 864 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified$35.2550.36 coins$84.00120 coins2.38x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $35.22 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $35.25 | 90.92% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $35.26 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.09 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $35.23 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $35.26 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.25 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 13.9%classified 14.5%restricted 45.0%mil spec 26.6%best hit —