Levitation
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.05
90.07 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $57.32 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.02%
835 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 835 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$63.0590.07 coins$1,1701,672 coins18.56x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryCarry$62.9689.94 coins$8141,163 coins12.93x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryChris Handsome$62.9689.94 coins$8141,163 coins12.93x
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary-hg- Stain$62.9689.94 coins$8141,163 coins12.93x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $63.05 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $63.05 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $62.96 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%legendary 0.2%covert 18.8%extraordinary 1.0%mil spec 80.0%best hit $2,499 (39.69x)