Life or Death
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4,683.34
6,690 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $4,257.58 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.70%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
45.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$4,6836,690 coins$445636 coins0.10x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$4,8476,924 coins$445635 coins0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4,683 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4,847 | 90.91% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 5.0%contraband 1.0%covert 94.0%best hit $10.8K (2.23x)