Lifeline
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 40%, gloves, 50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.95
5.64 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $3.59 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.07%
16.2K openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
48.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
51.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$4.015.73 coins$552788 coins137.5x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$4.005.71 coins$552788 coins138.0x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertLazer Larry$3.995.7 coins$552788 coins138.2x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.005.71 coins$298425 coins74.43x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$3.995.7 coins$298425 coins74.56x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sous-Lieutenant Medic | Gendarmerie Nationaleagent · exceptionalKas.I.Na$3.955.64 coins$7.9511.36 coins2.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $3.95 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.95 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.01 | 90.89% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.01 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.01 | 90.95% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $4.00 | 90.84% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $3.99 | 90.95% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.12 | 90.87% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.9%legendary 0.0%covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%remarkable 0.8%restricted 1.0%exotic 2.0%exceptional 2.5%#4b69ff 41.0%base 51.7%best hit $552 (137.5x)