Lightning
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$146.39
209 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $133.08 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.45%
292 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 292 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$146209 coins$8991,285 coins6.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$146209 coins$57.7782.53 coins0.39x
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified★ UnToUcHaBlE ™$146209 coins$89.60128 coins0.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $146 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $149 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 82.0%extraordinary 3.0%classified 15.0%best hit $899 (6.14x)