Lightning Case
A case on CSGORoll (hot), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$52.68
75.26 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $47.90 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.92%
154 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified`FluffyFlow⭕⃤$52.6875.26 coins$5.017.15 coins0.10x
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCrly-H34D$52.6875.26 coins$5.077.24 coins0.10x
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedNo..Ie$52.6875.26 coins$5.017.15 coins0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $52.68 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $52.70 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.47 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 45.4%covert 16.4%restricted 18.2%mil spec 2.0%industrial 3.0%consumer 15.0%best hit $838 (15.67x)