Lights Out
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.20
30.29 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $19.27 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.64%
3,706 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.04% – 90.24%, 3,706 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,706 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $21.20 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.22 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.65 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.66 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 23.4%rare 0.1%extraordinary 2.3%mil spec 1.5%classified 17.8%restricted 25.0%high 30.0%best hit —