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Lightspeed

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$249.27
356 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $226.61 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.16%
237 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
41.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
35 openings · below min
7 days
97.20%±9.77195 openings
30 days
95.16%±8.85237 openings
since tracking started
95.16%±8.85237 openings
71.0%95.0%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3594.98%±23.2—odds
7d19597.20%±9.77+1.3σodds
30d23795.16%±8.85+0.9σodds
All23795.16%±8.85+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 400$971 1,387 coins1.1%00.6—
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 40$855 1,221 coins9.4%95.91.52×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 67$816 1,165 coins5.4%63.61.69×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 133$587 838 coins1.9%11.80.56×
Sticker | JW (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary1 in 11$484 692 coins19.2%1921.30.89×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 29$436 623 coins6.5%78.10.87×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 18$209 299 coins5.2%1313.30.98×
★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert18.0%$207 296 coins16.5%4642.71.08×
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 212.0%$154 220 coins8.2%3528.41.23×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert20.0%$152 217 coins13.4%4847.41.01×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert20.0%$113 162 coins10.0%4047.40.84×
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 14$103 147 coins3.2%1316.60.78×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$252360 coins$8741,248 coins3.47x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$252360 coins$8741,248 coins3.47x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$252360 coins$8741,248 coins3.47x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$252360 coins$8741,248 coins3.47x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2tashud$252360 coins$8741,248 coins3.47x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$249356 coins$8551,221 coins3.43x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2sakalaka bum bum$249356 coins$8551,221 coins3.43x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$249356 coins$8551,221 coins3.43x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$249356 coins$8551,221 coins3.43x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$252360 coins$8311,187 coins3.30x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | JW (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$249356 coins$484692 coins1.94x
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$249356 coins$113162 coins0.45x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$249356 coins$8551,221 coins3.43x
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$249356 coins$113162 coins0.45x
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$249356 coins$113162 coins0.45x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$249356 coins$436623 coins1.75x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$249356 coins$209299 coins0.84x
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$249356 coins$154220 coins0.62x
Sticker | JW (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$249356 coins$484692 coins1.94x
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2epycT❤M.$249356 coins$154220 coins0.62x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$24990.91%12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$25290.91%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 16.3%covert 83.7%best hit $874 (3.47x)