Lilium

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.92

17.03 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $10.84 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.72%

1,270 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.23%±12.11117 openings

7 days

93.37%±3.931,082 openings

30 days

93.72%±3.621,270 openings

since tracking started

93.72%±3.621,270 openings

81.5%94.3%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	117	94.23%±12.1	+0.5σ	odds
7d	1,082	93.37%±3.93	+1.2σ	odds
30d	1,270	93.72%±3.62	+1.5σ	odds
All	1,270	93.72%±3.62	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Patch \| Dead Menpatch · remarkable	1 in 667	$63.06 90.09 coins	0.9%	3	1.9	1.57×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 400	$63.03 90.04 coins	1.5%	4	3.2	1.26×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$48.19 68.84 coins	4.4%	10	12.7	0.79×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 32	$30.00 42.86 coins	8.6%	52	39.4	1.32×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 67	$28.39 40.56 coins	3.9%	20	19.1	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 67	$18.79 26.84 coins	2.6%	25	19.1	1.31×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$15.62 22.31 coins	14.4%	124	127.0	0.98×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	15.0%	$15.11 21.58 coins	20.9%	196	190.5	1.03×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 29	$11.20 16 coins	3.6%	49	44.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	15.5%	$10.53 15.04 coins	15.1%	190	196.8	0.97×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	15.5%	$7.14 10.2 coins	10.2%	175	196.8	0.89×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	17.7%	$6.57 9.38 coins	10.7%	240	224.8	1.07×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	15.3%	$2.27 3.24 coins	3.2%	182	194.3	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$11.9217.03 coins$6.579.38 coins0.55x1h

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6$11.9217.03 coins$15.1121.58 coins1.27x1h

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · MythicalSullisman$11.9217.03 coins$11.2016 coins0.94x1h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6$11.9217.03 coins$10.5315.04 coins0.88x5h

FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$11.9217.03 coins$15.6222.31 coins1.31x5h

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Vaulty$11.9217.03 coins$15.1121.58 coins1.27x5h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6$11.9217.03 coins$10.5315.04 coins0.88x5h

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$11.9217.03 coins$7.1410.2 coins0.60x5h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6$11.9217.03 coins$10.5315.04 coins0.88x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$11.92	90.92%	13
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$12.12	90.89%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.15	90.92%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.1%mil spec 15.6%covert 1.0%Ancient 4.6%rare 1.5%classified 27.7%#d32ee6 15.0%Mythical 3.5%#d32ce6 15.5%uncommon 15.5%best hit —