Liquid Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.25

41.78 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $26.59 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.71%

2,490 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.51%±11.78258 openings

7 days

88.47%±4.082,108 openings

30 days

89.71%±3.752,490 openings

since tracking started

89.71%±3.752,490 openings

75.0%87.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	258	87.51%±11.8	−0.6σ	odds
7d	2,108	88.47%±4.08	−1.2σ	odds
30d	2,490	89.71%±3.75	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,490	89.71%±3.75	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,491 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$493 705 coins	0.6%	1	0.7	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$116 166 coins	13.1%	82	74.7	1.10×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 149	$115 164 coins	2.9%	14	16.7	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$62.27 88.95 coins	4.7%	42	49.8	0.84×
MP7 \| Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer	14.3%	$55.28 78.97 coins	29.7%	336	356.2	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$52.74 75.35 coins	19.8%	255	249.1	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$30.86 44.08 coins	11.6%	252	249.1	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	15.0%	$15.44 22.06 coins	8.7%	344	373.6	0.92×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$7.78 11.12 coins	4.4%	380	373.6	1.02×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$4.84 6.91 coins	2.7%	400	373.6	1.07×
PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$3.11 4.45 coins	1.8%	385	373.6	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$29.3241.89 coins$507725 coins17.31x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$29.2541.78 coins$3.114.45 coins0.11x9m

Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$29.2541.78 coins$15.4422.06 coins0.53x9m

MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer$29.2541.78 coins$55.2878.97 coins1.89x9m

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert$29.2541.78 coins$116166 coins3.97x9m

Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$29.2541.78 coins$15.4422.06 coins0.53x9m

Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialJarza$29.2541.78 coins$15.4422.06 coins0.53x9m

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedVeckans$29.2541.78 coins$30.8644.08 coins1.06x10m

MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumerUnfairScroll27$29.2541.78 coins$55.2878.97 coins1.89x10m

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classifiedDrew Peacock$29.2541.78 coins$52.7475.35 coins1.80x10m

MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumerfabsu1996$29.2541.78 coins$55.2878.97 coins1.89x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$29.25	90.92%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$29.31	90.90%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$29.32	90.90%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.7%restricted 12.0%consumer 14.3%classified 10.0%industrial 15.0%mil spec 45.0%best hit $507 (17.31x)