Lizard

A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$265.55

379 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $241.41 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

106.17%

33 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

33 openings · below min

30 days

33 openings · below min

since tracking started

33 openings · below min

49.5%106.3%163.0%

Small sample. 33 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	33	106.17%±56.2	—	odds
30d	33	106.17%±56.2	—	odds
All	33	106.17%±56.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$9,856 14,080 coins	4.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$6,573 9,390 coins	2.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$1,900 2,715 coins	6.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$1,100 1,572 coins	4.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$754 1,077 coins	4.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33	$523 747 coins	6.5%	2	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 20	$523 747 coins	10.8%	2	1.7	1.21×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 40	$499 713 coins	5.2%	2	0.8	—
Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 20	$407 582 coins	8.4%	1	1.7	0.61×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 13	$392 560 coins	13.0%	4	2.6	1.52×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$378 540 coins	7.8%	3	1.7	1.82×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 17	$348 497 coins	8.6%	2	2.0	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$317 453 coins	2.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.0%	$73.50 105 coins	7.6%	6	8.3	0.73×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.0%	$57.36 81.95 coins	5.9%	7	8.3	0.85×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	10.0%	$25.92 37.03 coins	1.1%	2	3.3	0.61×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.