Loaded Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.59
149 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $95.08 from 54 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.31%
463 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 463 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covertPlease let me pull$105150 coins$597853 coins5.68x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 54 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.0%contraband 0.0%legendary 0.0%classified 36.8%restricted 5.1%rare 0.2%epic 0.5%exotic 0.1%mil spec 23.5%extraordinary 0.8%best hit $1,149 (10.93x)