Longshot

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$221.21

316 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $201.10 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

56.38%

64 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

64 openings · below min

30 days

64 openings · below min

since tracking started

64 openings · below min

-0.5%60.8%122.0%

Small sample. 64 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	60.37%±60.9	—	odds
7d	64	56.38%±41.5	—	odds
30d	64	56.38%±41.5	—	odds
All	64	56.38%±41.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$7,521 10,745 coins	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$6,930 9,900 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 345	$2,100 3,000 coins	3.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 50	$1,921 2,745 coins	19.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$1,802 2,575 coins	4.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 667	$1,411 2,015 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 33	$920 1,315 coins	13.7%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$454 649 coins	2.3%	0	0.6	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 33	$436 623 coins	6.5%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	90.0%	$106 152 coins	47.6%	62	57.6	1.08×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.