Lost and Found

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$62.57

89.38 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $56.88 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.16%

259 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

80.83%±10.16187 openings

30 days

87.16%±8.63259 openings

since tracking started

87.16%±8.63259 openings

9.5%79.5%149.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	79.30%±69.3	—	odds
7d	187	80.83%±10.2	−1.9σ	odds
30d	259	87.16%±8.63	−0.9σ	odds
All	259	87.16%±8.63	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 259 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$755 1,079 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$576 823 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,818	$424 606 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 400	$244 349 coins	1.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$158 226 coins	2.8%	1	2.6	0.39×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$157 224 coins	1.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$157 224 coins	1.4%	2	1.3	1.54×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 57	$140 200 coins	4.3%	4	4.5	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$120 171 coins	12.6%	12	15.5	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50	$115 165 coins	4.1%	5	5.2	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$107 153 coins	16.9%	30	23.3	1.29×
Tec-9 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 11	$89.60 128 coins	14.2%	20	23.3	0.86×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$88.90 127 coins	7.8%	12	13.0	0.93×
★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert	1 in 33	$62.44 89.2 coins	3.3%	4	7.8	0.51×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$47.26 67.52 coins	5.0%	21	15.5	1.35×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$42.24 60.34 coins	6.7%	30	23.3	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$35.62 50.88 coins	5.6%	16	23.3	0.69×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.9%	$23.72 33.88 coins	4.5%	27	28.2	0.96×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$19.36 27.66 coins	3.4%	29	25.9	1.12×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$15.06 21.52 coins	2.4%	22	23.3	0.94×
Souvenir P90 \| Teardown (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$11.53 16.47 coins	1.6%	23	20.7	1.11×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$62.5789.38 coins$42.2460.34 coins0.68x23m

Tec-9 | Tornado (Factory New)weapon · consumer$62.5789.38 coins$89.60128 coins1.43x23m

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$62.5789.38 coins$47.2667.52 coins0.76x23m

AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSprellarinn$62.5789.38 coins$19.3627.66 coins0.31x23m

P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$63.5690.8 coins$85.40122 coins1.34x3d

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$63.5690.8 coins$43.1861.69 coins0.68x3d

AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$63.5690.8 coins$19.0127.16 coins0.30x3d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMiltsukkaaaw :3$63.5690.8 coins$23.3133.3 coins0.37x3d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$63.5690.8 coins$107153 coins1.69x3d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedsar haozar$63.5690.8 coins$23.3133.3 coins0.37x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$62.57	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$62.78	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$63.56	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.1%restricted 6.0%consumer 9.0%classified 43.9%extraordinary 6.0%mil spec 8.0%best hit —