Love Struck

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.02

12.88 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $8.20 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.37%

3,840 openings, odds method

Variance

7.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.70%±28.76365 openings

7 days

86.85%±9.493,370 openings

30 days

88.37%±8.893,840 openings

since tracking started

88.37%±8.893,840 openings

67.5%96.8%126.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	365	96.70%±28.8	+0.4σ	odds
7d	3,370	86.85%±9.49	−0.8σ	odds
30d	3,840	88.37%±8.89	−0.5σ	odds
All	3,840	88.37%±8.89	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,852 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 667	$286 408 coins	5.2%	6	5.8	1.04×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$248 355 coins	3.0%	5	3.9	1.30×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 222	$206 294 coins	11.3%	13	17.3	0.75×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 400	$186 265 coins	5.7%	14	9.6	1.45×
Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 400	$175 250 coins	5.3%	5	9.6	0.52×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$115 164 coins	7.0%	20	19.3	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 143	$77.70 111 coins	6.6%	27	27.0	1.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$47.59 67.98 coins	4.4%	26	28.9	0.90×
Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$34.55 49.35 coins	4.2%	26	38.5	0.67×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$24.33 34.76 coins	1.8%	17	23.1	0.74×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 133	$19.42 27.74 coins	1.8%	33	28.9	1.14×
Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$16.70 23.85 coins	3.1%	53	57.8	0.92×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.40 19.14 coins	6.5%	150	154.1	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$13.29 18.98 coins	3.2%	79	77.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$6.69 9.55 coins	4.1%	187	192.6	0.97×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$6.66 9.52 coins	3.3%	149	154.1	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$4.92 7.03 coins	4.5%	313	288.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	11.5%	$4.10 5.86 coins	5.8%	461	443.0	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$3.39 4.85 coins	3.3%	305	308.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$2.63 3.75 coins	4.8%	589	577.8	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	12.5%	$2.27 3.24 coins	3.5%	480	481.5	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$2.09 2.98 coins	1.3%	200	192.6	1.04×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	18.5%	$0.17 0.25 coins	0.4%	694	712.6	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$9.0212.88 coins$0.170.25 coins0.02x45m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$9.0212.88 coins$4.105.86 coins0.45x45m

MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$9.0212.88 coins$2.273.24 coins0.25x45m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$9.0212.88 coins$2.633.75 coins0.29x45m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$9.0212.88 coins$6.699.55 coins0.74x45m

MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffJarza$9.0212.88 coins$2.273.24 coins0.25x45m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$9.0212.88 coins$2.633.75 coins0.29x46m

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$9.0212.88 coins$6.669.52 coins0.74x46m

Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial$9.0212.88 coins$0.170.25 coins0.02x46m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$9.0212.88 coins$6.699.55 coins0.74x46m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$9.02	90.90%	23
9 Nov, 20:11 UTC	$9.02	90.88%	23
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$9.01	90.92%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$8.86	90.93%	23
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$8.78	90.92%	23
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$8.76	90.89%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$8.76	90.92%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.9%classified 5.5%mil spec 16.8%restricted 15.0%pink 0.8%Mythical 5.0%Legendary 19.0%#8847ff 12.5%uncommon 5.0%industrial 18.5%best hit —