Luminous
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.21
6.01 coins
Advertised RTP
90.88%
EV $3.82 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.53%
17K openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restrictedReettaonläski$4.216.01 coins$3.394.85 coins0.81x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $4.21 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $4.21 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.19 | 90.94% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.27 | 90.96% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.26 | 90.96% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $4.26 | 90.97% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $4.27 | 90.84% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.27 | 90.94% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 19.9%exotic 0.0%remarkable 1.5%restricted 38.6%mil spec 20.0%consumer 20.0%best hit —