Lunar
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.82
44.03 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $28.02 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.84%
478 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 520 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlShiba inu$30.6043.72 coins$1,0211,458 coins33.35x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlmickarmement100k$30.6043.72 coins$1,0211,458 coins33.35x
★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$30.6043.72 coins$7061,008 coins23.06x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$30.8244.03 coins$2.944.2 coins0.10x
Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumermos´ez$30.8244.03 coins$4.446.35 coins0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.82 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.99 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.60 | 90.90% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.8%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 39.8%classified 22.1%consumer 25.0%best hit $1,021 (33.35x)