M4A4
A case on CSGORoll (rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.90
9.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.93%
EV $6.27 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.86%
13K openings, odds method
Variance
38.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedI'm the best bird$6.989.97 coins$1,2691,813 coins181.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.90 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.96 | 90.87% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $6.98 | 90.93% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $6.98 | 90.87% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.98 | 90.89% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%classified 0.4%restricted 20.4%mil spec 21.3%covert 7.9%industrial 28.7%Rare 21.3%best hit $1,269 (181.8x)