Made in Vertigo

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$47.03

67.18 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $42.75 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

103.03%

986 openings, odds method

Variance

6.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

127.61%±37.27180 openings

7 days

103.66%±17.64795 openings

30 days

103.03%±15.82986 openings

since tracking started

103.03%±15.82986 openings

85.5%125.5%165.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	180	127.61%±37.3	+1.9σ	odds
7d	795	103.66%±17.6	+1.4σ	odds
30d	986	103.03%±15.8	+1.5σ	odds
All	986	103.03%±15.8	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 986 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,436 2,052 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$1,432 2,045 coins	1.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$879 1,256 coins	2.1%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$795 1,135 coins	4.6%	4	2.5	1.62×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$745 1,064 coins	2.6%	1	1.5	0.68×
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$682 974 coins	3.2%	2	2.0	1.01×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$582 832 coins	15.0%	19	10.8	1.75×
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$438 625 coins	5.1%	2	4.9	0.41×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 74	$414 591 coins	13.1%	12	13.3	0.90×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$401 573 coins	3.8%	5	3.9	1.27×
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 133	$334 477 coins	5.9%	12	7.4	1.62×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$328 469 coins	2.3%	1	3.0	0.34×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$199 284 coins	9.3%	16	19.7	0.81×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 67	$176 251 coins	6.2%	20	14.8	1.35×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$130 185 coins	1.1%	2	3.5	0.58×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$121 173 coins	8.5%	26	29.6	0.88×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$89.60 128 coins	6.3%	23	29.6	0.78×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$76.30 109 coins	8.9%	69	49.3	1.40×
Souvenir M249 \| Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	25.0%	$0.58 0.83 coins	0.3%	235	246.5	0.95×
Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	25.0%	$0.24 0.34 coins	0.1%	248	246.5	1.01×
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Navy Sheen (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.0%	287	295.8	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$47.0367.18 coins$8791,256 coins18.70x23h

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$48.0968.7 coins$8631,233 coins17.95x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$47.0367.18 coins$7951,135 coins16.89x8h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertKickerrrrrrrr$47.0367.18 coins$7951,135 coins16.89x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$47.0367.18 coins$7951,135 coins16.89x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$48.0968.7 coins$7861,123 coins16.35x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$47.0367.18 coins$7451,064 coins15.84x1d

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covertRobond$48.0968.7 coins$686980 coins14.26x4d

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert$48.0968.7 coins$686980 coins14.26x8d

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert$47.0367.18 coins$682974 coins14.50x19h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$47.0367.18 coins$0.240.34 coins0.01x1h

Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$47.0367.18 coins$0.580.83 coins0.01x1h

Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrialChrasťoušekS$47.0367.18 coins$0.580.83 coins0.01x1h

Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$47.0367.18 coins$0.580.83 coins0.01x3h

Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$47.0367.18 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x3h

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$47.0367.18 coins$0.240.34 coins0.01x3h

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrialROYCE_Gamba$47.0367.18 coins$0.240.34 coins0.01x3h

AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$47.0367.18 coins$76.30109 coins1.62x3h

Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · industrialROYCE_Gamba$47.0367.18 coins$0.240.34 coins0.01x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$47.03	90.91%	21
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$47.03	90.90%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$47.05	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$47.08	90.92%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$48.09	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.5%extraordinary 1.5%restricted 3.1%classified 1.4%epic 1.5%mil spec 3.0%industrial 50.0%consumer 30.0%best hit $879 (18.70x)