Magic Hands

A case on CSGORoll (gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$226.92

324 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $206.29 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.99%

88 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

84 openings · below min

30 days

88 openings · below min

since tracking started

88 openings · below min

40.5%87.5%134.5%

Small sample. 88 openings and 15.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	84	88.46%±45.6	—	odds
30d	88	85.99%±44.6	—	odds
All	88	85.99%±44.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$6,269 8,955 coins	15.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 36	$1,177 1,682 coins	16.0%	5	2.5	2.03×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 118	$920 1,315 coins	3.8%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 65	$566 808 coins	4.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 56	$506 723 coins	4.4%	2	1.6	1.26×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$370 529 coins	2.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 48	$307 438 coins	3.1%	3	1.8	1.62×
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$299 427 coins	8.7%	8	5.3	1.52×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$264 377 coins	4.5%	2	3.1	0.65×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 22	$193 275 coins	4.2%	3	4.0	0.76×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	11.0%	$191 273 coins	10.2%	14	9.7	1.45×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 19	$152 217 coins	3.9%	2	4.7	0.43×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$111 158 coins	2.1%	1	3.5	0.28×
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	22.2%	$93.80 134 coins	10.1%	17	19.5	0.87×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	14.5%	$57.46 82.08 coins	4.0%	11	12.8	0.86×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	18.0%	$34.31 49.01 coins	3.0%	20	15.8	1.26×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.