Magnetic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.64

10.91 coins

Advertised RTP

90.88%

EV $6.94 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.77%

2,872 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.01%±15.12320 openings

7 days

88.34%±5.532,376 openings

30 days

88.77%±5.022,872 openings

since tracking started

88.77%±5.022,872 openings

70.0%86.0%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	320	86.01%±15.1	−0.6σ	odds
7d	2,376	88.34%±5.53	−0.9σ	odds
30d	2,872	88.77%±5.02	−0.8σ	odds
All	2,872	88.77%±5.02	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,872 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$109 156 coins	7.9%	15	14.4	1.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$41.03 58.61 coins	11.8%	42	57.4	0.73×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$26.61 38.01 coins	11.5%	88	86.2	1.02×
MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$20.05 28.65 coins	8.7%	83	86.2	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$19.19 27.42 coins	5.5%	55	57.4	0.96×
AK-47 \| Predator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$12.18 17.4 coins	5.3%	92	86.2	1.07×
USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$11.75 16.78 coins	5.1%	80	86.2	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$10.25 14.65 coins	4.4%	86	86.2	1.00×
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$10.25 14.64 coins	4.4%	79	86.2	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$8.64 12.34 coins	3.7%	92	86.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.85 8.36 coins	5.9%	218	201.0	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$5.03 7.19 coins	5.8%	245	229.8	1.07×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.50 5 coins	3.0%	198	172.3	1.15×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	15.0%	$3.32 4.74 coins	7.2%	425	430.8	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.23 4.62 coins	2.8%	171	172.3	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.61 2.3 coins	3.5%	447	430.8	1.04×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	17.5%	$1.39 1.98 coins	3.5%	456	502.6	0.91×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified~ZachAttack~$7.6410.91 coins$41.0358.61 coins5.37x1h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDaniel420$7.6410.91 coins$41.0358.61 coins5.37x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted~ZachAttack~$7.6410.91 coins$1.612.3 coins0.21x1h

P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedDaniel420$7.6410.91 coins$3.324.74 coins0.43x1h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary~ZachAttack~$7.6410.91 coins$5.037.19 coins0.66x1h

P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedDaniel420$7.6410.91 coins$3.324.74 coins0.43x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMoanTheAmazing$7.6410.91 coins$1.612.3 coins0.21x2h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restrictedElChapo$7.6410.91 coins$1.612.3 coins0.21x2h

P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified★ UnToUcHaBlE ™$7.6410.91 coins$3.324.74 coins0.43x2h

P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedIPR17ツ$7.6410.91 coins$10.2514.64 coins1.34x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$7.64	90.88%	17
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$7.64	90.89%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$7.62	90.95%	17
6 Nov, 22:57 UTC	$7.62	90.90%	17
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$7.63	90.90%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.66	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%classified 33.0%covert 3.0%restricted 29.0%industrial 6.0%mil spec 20.5%Legendary 8.0%best hit —