Marine

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$24.05

34.36 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $21.87 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.05%

2,419 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.35%±20.75148 openings

7 days

87.83%±5.572,067 openings

30 days

88.05%±5.152,419 openings

since tracking started

88.05%±5.152,419 openings

70.0%91.5%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	148	91.35%±20.8	+0.0σ	odds
7d	2,067	87.83%±5.57	−1.1σ	odds
30d	2,419	88.05%±5.15	−1.1σ	odds
All	2,419	88.05%±5.15	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,420 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$451 644 coins	1.0%	1	1.2	0.83×
Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 400	$321 459 coins	3.7%	3	6.1	0.50×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$295 421 coins	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$293 418 coins	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$160 228 coins	1.8%	9	6.1	1.49×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 286	$120 171 coins	1.9%	8	8.5	0.94×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 167	$110 157 coins	3.0%	16	14.5	1.10×
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 286	$99.40 142 coins	1.6%	13	8.5	1.53×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 71	$86.80 124 coins	5.6%	31	33.9	0.91×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$74.90 107 coins	1.7%	10	12.1	0.83×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 17	$66.68 95.26 coins	18.3%	150	145.2	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$65.46 93.51 coins	7.5%	53	60.5	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$50.27 71.81 coins	13.8%	148	145.2	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$28.72 41.03 coins	7.9%	119	145.2	0.82×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$28.64 40.92 coins	7.9%	140	145.2	0.96×
Nova \| Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$15.55 22.21 coins	5.0%	167	169.4	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$11.92 17.03 coins	3.8%	164	169.4	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$9.96 14.23 coins	3.9%	205	205.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Tread (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$6.62 9.46 coins	2.6%	225	205.7	1.09×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$6.53 9.33 coins	3.0%	253	242.0	1.05×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$5.56 7.95 coins	2.2%	222	210.3	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$3.67 5.24 coins	1.7%	229	242.0	0.95×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$3.16 4.51 coins	1.4%	254	242.0	1.05×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted$24.0534.36 coins$5.567.95 coins0.23x3h

Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue$24.0534.36 coins$15.5522.21 coins0.65x3h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Tread (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$24.0534.36 coins$6.629.46 coins0.28x3h

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted☯♥㊛$24.0534.36 coins$3.164.51 coins0.13x3h

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$24.0534.36 coins$50.2771.81 coins2.09x3h

Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted$24.0534.36 coins$5.567.95 coins0.23x3h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Tread (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec☯♥㊛$24.0534.36 coins$6.629.46 coins0.28x3h

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$24.0534.36 coins$3.164.51 coins0.13x3h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Tread (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$24.0534.36 coins$6.629.46 coins0.28x4h

Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue$24.0534.36 coins$15.5522.21 coins0.65x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$24.05	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$24.14	90.92%	23
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$24.24	90.90%	23
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$24.25	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$24.24	90.90%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.4%extraordinary 1.0%restricted 41.7%mil spec 18.9%classified 17.0%blue 7.0%best hit —