Maroon

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$140.01

200 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $127.28 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.00%

221 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

19 openings · below min

7 days

98.77%±15.45177 openings

30 days

95.00%±13.84221 openings

since tracking started

95.00%±13.84221 openings

23.0%70.3%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19	70.36%±46.7	—	odds
7d	177	98.77%±15.5	+1.0σ	odds
30d	221	95.00%±13.8	+0.6σ	odds
All	221	95.00%±13.8	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 221 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$2,513 3,590 coins	2.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,257 1,796 coins	2.0%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 250	$1,086 1,552 coins	3.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$935 1,336 coins	2.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$697 996 coins	2.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$679 970 coins	2.7%	3	1.1	2.71×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$652 932 coins	2.6%	3	1.1	2.71×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$531 758 coins	2.1%	3	1.1	2.71×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 200	$386 551 coins	1.5%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$384 549 coins	1.5%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$274 392 coins	1.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$244 349 coins	1.9%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$232 332 coins	1.8%	2	2.2	0.90×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$190 271 coins	1.5%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	30.0%	$107 153 coins	25.2%	65	66.3	0.98×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 40	$106 151 coins	2.1%	7	5.5	1.27×
Sticker \| somebody (Foil) \| Boston 2018sticker · remarkable	30.0%	$93.80 134 coins	22.1%	73	66.3	1.10×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$91.70 131 coins	21.6%	60	66.3	0.90×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$140200 coins$1,1201,600 coins8.01x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2SVENNEBANANNNEEE$140200 coins$1,1201,600 coins8.01x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$140200 coins$7041,006 coins5.03x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$140200 coins$7041,006 coins5.03x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$140200 coins$7041,006 coins5.03x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$140200 coins$664949 coins4.75x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$140200 coins$664949 coins4.75x4d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covertLvlpl5$140200 coins$543775 coins3.88x4d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$140200 coins$543775 coins3.88x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | somebody (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · remarkable$140200 coins$93.80134 coins0.67x10h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$140200 coins$107153 coins0.76x11h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$140200 coins$91.70131 coins0.65x14h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertJakymowsky$140200 coins$107153 coins0.76x14h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$140200 coins$91.70131 coins0.65x14h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$140200 coins$91.70131 coins0.65x15h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$140200 coins$107153 coins0.76x15h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$140200 coins$91.70131 coins0.65x15h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert🔸Regular🔸$140200 coins$107153 coins0.76x15h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$140200 coins$91.70131 coins0.65x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$140	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$140	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.0%extraordinary 1.0%remarkable 30.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $1,120 (8.01x)