Matrix
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.45
40.64 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $25.86 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.55%
704 openings, odds method
Variance
12.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 704 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$28.7841.11 coins$2,0022,860 coins69.57x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Sprout Esports (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · exotic$28.4540.64 coins$43.7462.48 coins1.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $28.45 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.46 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.82 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.78 | 90.92% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 9.7%restricted 1.3%exotic 19.0%classified 23.0%rare 12.0%industrial 15.0%common 20.0%best hit $2,002 (69.57x)