Mayhem

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$176.05

252 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $160.05 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.30%

36 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

36 openings · below min

since tracking started

36 openings · below min

56.0%79.3%102.5%

Small sample. 36 openings and 9.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	36	79.30%±22.4	—	odds
30d	36	79.30%±22.4	—	odds
All	36	79.30%±22.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$941 1,344 coins	2.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$660 943 coins	4.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$536 766 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$440 628 coins	13.7%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$287 410 coins	5.4%	1	1.1	0.93×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$255 364 coins	12.7%	4	2.9	1.39×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 11	$195 279 coins	11.0%	4	3.2	1.23×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$195 278 coins	6.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$168 240 coins	5.2%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Flip Knifeknife · covert	1 in 13	$159 227 coins	7.9%	3	2.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$141 202 coins	8.8%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 14	$128 183 coins	5.6%	2	2.5	0.79×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	23.4%	$84.70 121 coins	12.4%	11	8.4	1.31×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	15.0%	$39.24 56.06 coins	3.7%	6	5.4	1.11×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.