Medium 50 50
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$54.68
78.11 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $49.70 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.45%
892 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 904 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 50.0% | $99.40 142 coins | 100.0% | 430 | 452.0 | 0.95× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 474 | 452.0 | 1.05× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUnfairScroll27$54.6878.11 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $54.68 | 90.90% | 2 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.14 | 90.90% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 50.0%consumer 50.0%best hit —