Melody
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.60
0.86 coins
Advertised RTP
91.10%
EV $0.55 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.34%
51.3K openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $61.52 87.89 coins | 1.1% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.55× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 1 in 400 | $4.07 5.82 coins | 1.9% | 139 | 129.3 | 1.07× |
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 81 | $2.33 3.33 coins | 5.3% | 644 | 641.4 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $2.22 3.17 coins | 36.4% | 4,610 | 4655.2 | 0.99× |
| Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $1.67 2.39 coins | 21.4% | 3,704 | 3620.7 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 12.5% | $0.90 1.29 coins | 20.6% | 6,426 | 6465.5 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $0.41 0.58 coins | 11.1% | 7,675 | 7758.6 | 0.99× |
| Dual Berettas | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 17.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 1.1% | 9,134 | 9051.7 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 17.5% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.7% | 9,063 | 9051.7 | 1.00× |
| Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 10,321 | 10344.8 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertlucirse$0.610.87 coins$62.4289.17 coins102.5x
★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$Barbieespecedeconnasse$$0.600.86 coins$61.5287.89 coins102.2x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.10%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.60 | 91.10% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.60 | 90.58% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.61 | 90.54% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.61 | 90.51% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%consumer 37.8%restricted 32.2%mil spec 12.5%industrial 17.5%best hit $62.42 (102.5x)