Meltdown

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$357.61

511 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $325.10 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

63.58%

1,266 openings, odds method

Variance

62.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

201 openings · below min

7 days

67.73%±46.581,106 openings

30 days

63.58%±43.521,266 openings

since tracking started

63.58%±43.521,266 openings

-0.5%65.3%131.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	201	20.94%±109.5	—	odds
7d	1,106	67.73%±46.6	−1.0σ	odds
30d	1,266	63.58%±43.5	−1.2σ	odds
All	1,266	63.58%±43.5	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,266 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 400	$53.5K 76,380 coins	41.1%	2	3.2	0.63×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 400	$11.9K 17,000 coins	9.2%	1	3.2	0.32×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$9,534 13,620 coins	7.3%	2	3.2	0.63×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 400	$9,240 13,200 coins	7.1%	1	3.2	0.32×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$2,615 3,735 coins	8.0%	14	12.7	1.11×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 100	$1,639 2,341 coins	5.0%	12	12.7	0.95×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$1,543 2,204 coins	4.7%	12	12.7	0.95×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,436 2,052 coins	4.4%	13	12.7	1.03×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$1,257 1,796 coins	7.7%	23	25.3	0.91×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$679 970 coins	2.1%	9	12.7	0.71×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$630 900 coins	1.9%	9	12.7	0.71×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$418 597 coins	1.3%	15	12.7	1.18×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	416	379.8	1.10×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	368	379.8	0.97×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	369	379.8	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$360514 coins$53.5K76,380 coins148.6x5d

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarytashud$360514 coins$53.5K76,380 coins148.6x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$358511 coins$11.9K17,000 coins33.28x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$360514 coins$10K14,325 coins27.88x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyKickerrrrrrrr$358511 coins$9,53413,620 coins26.66x1d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$360514 coins$8,83812,625 coins24.57x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandHakki$360514 coins$8,83812,625 coins24.57x7d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$360514 coins$2,6393,770 coins7.34x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$358511 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$358511 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$358511 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$358511 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$358511 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$358511 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x3h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumertiltedfish$358511 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x3h

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$358511 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$358	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$358	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$360	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.3%covert 9.5%contraband 0.3%consumer 90.0%best hit $53.5K (148.6x)