Meow
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.67
12.38 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $7.88 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.07%
4,037 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,041 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$8.6712.38 coins$12.4217.75 coins1.43x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedRusty Cake$8.6712.38 coins$6.389.11 coins0.74x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBRÄTT <3$8.6712.38 coins$12.4217.75 coins1.43x
StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.6712.38 coins$6.389.11 coins0.74x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $8.67 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.67 | 90.88% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.79 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.79 | 90.89% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%restricted 24.5%mil spec 0.0%classified 10.3%industrial 47.0%Mythical 17.6%best hit —