Mercenary
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$85.83
123 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $78.03 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.69%
84 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 84 openings and 11.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$85.83123 coins$41.9659.95 coins0.49x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$85.83123 coins$89.60128 coins1.04x
UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialryfry$85.83123 coins$26.8738.38 coins0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.83 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.20 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.77 | 90.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 29.0%classified 18.9%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 14.0%industrial 38.0%best hit —