Mermaid Glory
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$121.33
173 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $110.30 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.83%
578 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 578 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Necro$121173 coins$1,9392,770 coins15.98x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$124176 coins$9211,316 coins7.46x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$124176 coins$9211,316 coins7.46x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$121173 coins$8841,263 coins7.29x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirem1chi$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphirem1chi$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$121173 coins$8.8112.58 coins0.07x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$121173 coins$518740 coins4.27x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNecro$121173 coins$8.8112.58 coins0.07x
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$121173 coins$595850 coins4.90x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$121173 coins$518740 coins4.27x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertPontus$121173 coins$420600 coins3.46x
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$121173 coins$32.5846.55 coins0.27x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$121173 coins$127181 coins1.04x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$121173 coins$8841,263 coins7.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $121 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $122 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $124 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.9%classified 2.0%restricted 26.8%extraordinary 2.3%consumer 50.0%best hit $1,939 (15.98x)