Meteor
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$863.17
1,233 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $784.70 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
47.28%
224 openings, odds method
Variance
36.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$8731,247 coins$24.5K35,000 coins28.07x
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendaryMopper$8731,247 coins$2,0902,985 coins2.39x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryMopper$8731,247 coins$1,9492,785 coins2.23x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryMopper$8731,247 coins$1,9492,785 coins2.23x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$8731,247 coins$1,9492,785 coins2.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$8631,233 coins$1,8652,665 coins2.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $863 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $863 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $863 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $873 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $873 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $873 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 9.9%extraordinary 8.2%covert 5.8%contraband 1.0%restricted 50.0%consumer 25.0%best hit $24.5K (28.07x)