Midas Touch
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$232.27
332 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $211.16 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.05%
217 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 218 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.83× |
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 5.0% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.83× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $659 942 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 100 | $434 620 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $207 296 coins | 29.4% | 71 | 65.4 | 1.09× |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert | 16.0% | $197 281 coins | 14.9% | 28 | 34.9 | 0.80× |
| Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $174 248 coins | 24.7% | 67 | 65.4 | 1.02× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 20.0% | $58.98 84.26 coins | 5.6% | 44 | 43.6 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$233332 coins$659942 coins2.83x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $232 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $232 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $231 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 99.0%epic 1.0%best hit $4,631 (20.00x)