Mil-Spec
A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.76
2.51 coins
Advertised RTP
91.01%
EV $1.60 from 55 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.88%
31.1K openings, odds method
Variance
19.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec♥@!?dsx3232 `boost4life$1.742.48 coins$312446 coins179.8x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $1.76 | 91.01% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $1.76 | 91.01% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.76 | 90.86% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $1.75 | 91.09% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $1.76 | 90.82% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $1.75 | 91.02% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.75 | 91.06% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.75 | 91.07% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.75 | 91.08% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.74 | 90.94% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.74 | 90.77% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $1.74 | 91.05% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.74 | 90.96% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $1.74 | 90.73% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $1.74 | 90.78% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $1.74 | 90.79% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.74 | 90.88% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.76 | 90.96% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $1.76 | 90.91% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.76 | 91.03% | 55 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 88.8%industrial 5.2%blue 1.0%milspec 5.0%best hit $366 (208.4x)