Mindful

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$142.23

203 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $129.30 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.64%

312 openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

67.40%±37.54211 openings

30 days

80.64%±30.87312 openings

since tracking started

80.64%±30.87312 openings

-0.5%116.0%232.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	74.37%±157.3	—	odds
7d	211	67.40%±37.5	−1.2σ	odds
30d	312	80.64%±30.9	−0.7σ	odds
All	312	80.64%±30.9	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$11.4K 16,295 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$6,787 9,695 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$5,688 8,125 coins	4.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$5,548 7,925 coins	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$4,281 6,115 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$3,024 4,320 coins	7.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 250	$1,520 2,172 coins	4.7%	2	1.2	1.60×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 500	$1,467 2,096 coins	2.3%	2	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$1,453 2,075 coins	5.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 133	$918 1,312 coins	5.3%	7	2.3	2.99×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$685 978 coins	5.3%	3	3.1	0.96×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$603 862 coins	14.0%	3	9.4	0.32×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$477 682 coins	22.2%	14	18.7	0.75×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 25	$285 407 coins	8.8%	10	12.5	0.80×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 50	$241 345 coins	3.7%	8	6.2	1.28×
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 15	$222 317 coins	11.4%	22	20.7	1.06×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	122	117.0	1.04×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	118	117.0	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$145207 coins$2,9794,255 coins20.60x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubygurkan$145207 coins$1,6122,303 coins11.15x5d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$145207 coins$1,6122,303 coins11.15x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$145207 coins$1,4912,130 coins10.31x4d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$145207 coins$1,4912,130 coins10.31x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$145207 coins$9811,402 coins6.79x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$145207 coins$9811,402 coins6.79x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$145207 coins$9811,402 coins6.79x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert🟢Kick: JULSY$145207 coins$9811,402 coins6.79x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert🟢Kick: JULSY$145207 coins$9811,402 coins6.79x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$142203 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$142203 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$142203 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$142203 coins$222317 coins1.56x2h

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireKickerrrrrrrr$142203 coins$285407 coins2.00x2h

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$142203 coins$477682 coins3.36x2h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$142203 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$142203 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$142203 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$142	90.91%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$145	90.91%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.4%extraordinary 12.6%epic 2.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $2,979 (20.60x)