Mirage

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.74

25.34 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $16.13 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.10%

8,865 openings, odds method

Variance

7.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.65%±18.15923 openings

7 days

93.55%±6.317,639 openings

30 days

93.10%±5.868,865 openings

since tracking started

93.10%±5.868,865 openings

70.0%88.8%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	923	88.65%±18.1	−0.2σ	odds
7d	7,639	93.55%±6.31	+0.8σ	odds
30d	8,865	93.10%±5.86	+0.7σ	odds
All	8,865	93.10%±5.86	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,909 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$1,119 1,598 coins	6.9%	7	8.9	0.79×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$207 295 coins	5.1%	48	35.6	1.35×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$174 248 coins	4.3%	31	35.6	0.87×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$160 229 coins	4.0%	37	35.6	1.04×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$151 216 coins	11.2%	102	106.9	0.95×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$121 173 coins	22.5%	300	267.3	1.12×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$107 153 coins	13.3%	195	178.2	1.09×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$34.52 49.31 coins	10.7%	428	445.5	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$30.86 44.08 coins	16.3%	714	757.3	0.94×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$22.48 32.12 coins	5.6%	381	356.4	1.07×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	2,276	2227.3	1.02×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	2,153	2227.3	0.97×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,237	2227.3	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$17.8825.55 coins$1,1341,620 coins63.41x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$17.8825.55 coins$1,1341,620 coins63.41x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$17.7425.34 coins$1,1191,598 coins63.06x22h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$17.7425.34 coins$1,1191,598 coins63.06x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$17.7425.34 coins$1,1191,598 coins63.06x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$17.7425.34 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$17.7425.34 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x5m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUser#181$17.7425.34 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x5m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$17.7425.34 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUser#181$17.7425.34 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x7m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$17.7425.34 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUser#181$17.7425.34 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x8m

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$17.7425.34 coins$30.8644.08 coins1.74x8m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$17.7425.34 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$17.74	90.92%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.74	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$17.86	90.90%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.88	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.1%covert 4.4%restricted 11.5%mil spec 5.0%classified 4.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $1,134 (63.41x)