Mirei

A case on CSGORoll (partners, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$775.44

1,108 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $704.94 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.19%

46 openings, odds method

Variance

16.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

46 openings · below min

since tracking started

46 openings · below min

-0.5%153.8%308.0%

Small sample. 46 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	22.14%±285.0	—	odds
7d	46	53.19%±118.8	—	odds
30d	46	53.19%±118.8	—	odds
All	46	53.19%±118.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 500	$63.7K 90,950 coins	18.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 500	$14.4K 20,545 coins	4.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$12K 17,180 coins	5.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$10.7K 15,300 coins	3.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 250	$7,455 10,650 coins	4.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$6,930 9,900 coins	2.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 50	$4,277 6,110 coins	12.1%	1	0.9	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 250	$4,088 5,840 coins	2.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 182	$4,025 5,750 coins	3.1%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$3,941 5,630 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$3,458 4,940 coins	3.4%	0	0.3	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 182	$2,426 3,465 coins	1.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 33	$2,177 3,110 coins	9.3%	1	1.4	0.72×
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$2,100 3,000 coins	10.4%	3	1.6	1.86×
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$1,559 2,227 coins	7.7%	1	1.6	0.62×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$1,373 1,962 coins	7.8%	3	1.8	1.63×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$489 699 coins	3.5%	1	2.3	0.43×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	37.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	15	17.3	0.87×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	21	17.3	1.22×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband$7761,109 coins$4,2706,100 coins5.50x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$7761,109 coins$2,2023,145 coins2.84x3d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$7761,109 coins$2,1073,010 coins2.71x5d

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$7761,109 coins$2,1073,010 coins2.71x6d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$7751,108 coins$1,5592,227 coins2.01x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$7761,109 coins$1,3781,968 coins1.77x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$7751,108 coins$1,3731,962 coins1.77x9m

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$7771,110 coins$1,3731,962 coins1.77x2d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · coverttashud$7761,109 coins$513733 coins0.66x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x9m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkarma$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x9m

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$7751,108 coins$1,3731,962 coins1.77x9m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x13h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x13h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x13h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerkarma$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x13h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$7751,108 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$775	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$776	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.2%contraband 2.2%extraordinary 6.3%covert 15.9%remarkable 0.4%consumer 75.0%best hit $4,270 (5.50x)