Mismatch
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$350.06
500 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $318.24 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.01%
93 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
38.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 93 openings and 35.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$350500 coins$460657 coins1.31x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$350500 coins$388554 coins1.11x
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$350500 coins$388554 coins1.11x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$350500 coins$460657 coins1.31x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Cecil Tyler$350500 coins$460657 coins1.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $350 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $342 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $342 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $342 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.6%restricted 38.4%classified 11.0%best hit $939 (2.75x)