My one and only

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.70

33.85 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $21.54 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.51%

25.3K openings, odds method

Variance

648.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 909

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2,013 openings · below min

7 days

84.58%±33.8421.6K openings

30 days

89.51%±31.2325.3K openings

since tracking started

89.51%±31.2325.3K openings

-0.5%94.3%189.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,013	77.14%±111.2	—	odds
7d	21.6K	84.58%±33.8	−0.4σ	odds
30d	25.3K	89.51%±31.2	−0.1σ	odds
All	25.3K	89.51%±31.2	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 11,111	$53.5K 76,380 coins	22.3%	3	2.3	1.31×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$24.5K 35,000 coins	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$9,534 13,620 coins	22.1%	12	12.7	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$7,455 10,650 coins	17.3%	12	12.7	0.95×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$6,930 9,900 coins	16.1%	9	12.7	0.71×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,703 2,433 coins	4.0%	8	12.7	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,091 1,559 coins	2.5%	14	12.7	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$948 1,355 coins	2.2%	13	12.7	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$887 1,267 coins	2.1%	14	12.7	1.10×
Sticker \| mousesports \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 2,000	$667 953 coins	1.5%	13	12.7	1.02×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$636 909 coins	1.5%	9	12.7	0.71×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$421 602 coins	1.0%	12	12.7	0.95×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$390 557 coins	0.9%	14	12.7	1.10×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$385 550 coins	0.9%	14	12.7	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$372 531 coins	0.9%	11	12.7	0.87×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$325 464 coins	0.8%	18	12.7	1.42×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$307 438 coins	0.7%	15	12.7	1.18×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$260 371 coins	0.6%	14	12.7	1.10×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$192 274 coins	0.4%	14	12.7	1.10×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,111	$161 230 coins	0.7%	21	22.8	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 2,000	$157 224 coins	0.4%	10	12.7	0.79×
Sticker \| MOUZ \| Paris 2023sticker · Rare	99.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	25,134	25130.2	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$23.7033.85 coins$53.5K76,380 coins2,256x2d

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$24.0434.34 coins$53.5K76,380 coins2,224x5d

Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$24.0434.34 coins$53.5K76,380 coins2,224x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyVers$24.0434.34 coins$10K14,325 coins417.2x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$24.0434.34 coins$10K14,325 coins417.2x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1ikedior$24.0434.34 coins$10K14,325 coins417.2x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubymichi325$24.0434.34 coins$10K14,325 coins417.2x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$24.0434.34 coins$10K14,325 coins417.2x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023sticker · RarePetrrr csgoroll.com$23.7033.85 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7m

Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023sticker · Rare$23.7033.85 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7m

Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023sticker · RarePetrrr csgoroll.com$23.7033.85 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7m

Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023sticker · Rare$23.7033.85 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7m

Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023sticker · Rare$23.7033.85 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$23.70	90.90%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$24.04	90.90%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.6%classified 0.1%high 0.1%restricted 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 0.1%epic 0.1%Rare 99.0%best hit $53.5K (2,256x)