Navy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$42.07

60.1 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $38.24 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.48%

1,542 openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91 openings · below min

7 days

102.13%±16.551,377 openings

30 days

102.48%±15.651,542 openings

since tracking started

102.48%±15.651,542 openings

13.5%77.3%141.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	91	77.22%±63.2	—	odds
7d	1,377	102.13%±16.5	+1.3σ	odds
30d	1,542	102.48%±15.6	+1.5σ	odds
All	1,542	102.48%±15.6	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,542 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 6,667	$6,510 9,300 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 4,000	$3,136 4,480 coins	2.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	3.6%	2	0.8	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,250	$1,865 2,665 coins	3.9%	5	1.2	4.05×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$595 850 coins	1.6%	3	1.5	1.95×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 500	$533 761 coins	2.8%	2	3.1	0.65×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 667	$451 645 coins	1.8%	3	2.3	1.30×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 370	$270 385 coins	1.9%	2	4.2	0.48×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$169 242 coins	3.3%	9	11.6	0.78×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 303	$151 215 coins	1.3%	6	5.1	1.18×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$148 211 coins	1.9%	4	7.7	0.52×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$109 156 coins	5.7%	27	30.8	0.88×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 111	$81.20 116 coins	1.9%	23	13.9	1.66×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$63.41 90.59 coins	2.5%	20	23.1	0.86×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$59.74 85.34 coins	7.8%	87	77.1	1.13×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 80	$53.08 75.83 coins	1.7%	15	19.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14	$40.83 58.33 coins	7.5%	109	107.9	1.01×
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	25.0%	$25.44 36.34 coins	16.6%	389	385.5	1.01×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	39.9%	$21.68 30.97 coins	22.6%	619	614.9	1.01×
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$17.88 25.55 coins	7.0%	217	231.3	0.94×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$41.5159.3 coins$2,7623,945 coins66.53x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4coco$41.5159.3 coins$2,7623,945 coins66.53x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$41.5159.3 coins$1,9492,785 coins46.96x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$41.5159.3 coins$1,9492,785 coins46.96x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$42.0760.1 coins$1,8652,665 coins44.34x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$41.5159.3 coins$595850 coins14.33x5d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$41.5159.3 coins$595850 coins14.33x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$42.0760.1 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.97x3h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$42.0760.1 coins$59.7485.34 coins1.42x3h

AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified$42.0760.1 coins$25.4436.34 coins0.60x4h

AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$42.0760.1 coins$109156 coins2.60x4h

AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified$42.0760.1 coins$25.4436.34 coins0.60x5h

USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$42.0760.1 coins$21.6830.97 coins0.52x5h

USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialfast csgoroll.com$42.0760.1 coins$21.6830.97 coins0.52x5h

USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$42.0760.1 coins$21.6830.97 coins0.52x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$42.07	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$41.53	90.90%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$41.51	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.1%high 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%classified 32.9%industrial 39.9%mil spec 15.0%best hit $2,762 (66.53x)