NEONFUSION

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.51

16.45 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $10.47 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.51%

2,779 openings, odds method

Variance

6.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.34%±23.29454 openings

7 days

87.59%±10.292,347 openings

30 days

90.51%±9.472,779 openings

since tracking started

90.51%±9.472,779 openings

70.5%94.5%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	454	94.34%±23.3	+0.3σ	odds
7d	2,347	87.59%±10.3	−0.6σ	odds
30d	2,779	90.51%±9.47	−0.1σ	odds
All	2,779	90.51%±9.47	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,779 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$226 323 coins	17.3%	21	22.2	0.94×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 667	$183 261 coins	2.6%	4	4.2	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$113 161 coins	26.9%	64	69.5	0.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$74.20 106 coins	2.8%	19	11.1	1.71×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$52.35 74.78 coins	25.0%	146	139.0	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$36.97 52.82 coins	1.1%	3	8.3	0.36×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 83	$29.91 42.73 coins	3.4%	33	33.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$12.45 17.78 coins	3.6%	80	83.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$4.31 6.15 coins	2.9%	204	194.5	1.05×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	32.3%	$2.37 3.39 coins	7.3%	918	897.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.81 2.58 coins	2.6%	409	416.8	0.98×
Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	32.4%	$1.46 2.09 coins	4.5%	878	899.0	0.98×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedLAMINE$11.5116.45 coins$2.373.39 coins0.21x26m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$11.5116.45 coins$1.812.58 coins0.16x26m

FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$11.5116.45 coins$2.373.39 coins0.21x26m

Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$11.5116.45 coins$1.462.09 coins0.13x26m

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertLAMINE$11.5116.45 coins$113161 coins9.79x29m

FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$11.5116.45 coins$2.373.39 coins0.21x36m

Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$11.5116.45 coins$1.462.09 coins0.13x36m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkoorde♛- csgoroll.com$11.5116.45 coins$1.812.58 coins0.16x36m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$11.51	90.92%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$11.63	90.88%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.71	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.9%classified 3.5%restricted 86.7%best hit —