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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.86

5.52 coins

Advertised RTP

90.86%

EV $3.51 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.59%

28.7K openings, odds method

Variance

5.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 21

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.04%±7.813,118 openings

7 days

92.03%±2.8523.3K openings

30 days

91.59%±2.5628.7K openings

since tracking started

91.59%±2.5628.7K openings

80.5%89.0%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,118	89.04%±7.81	−0.5σ	odds
7d	23.3K	92.03%±2.85	+0.8σ	odds
30d	28.7K	91.59%±2.56	+0.5σ	odds
All	28.7K	91.59%±2.56	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$295 421 coins	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$104 148 coins	1.5%	12	14.4	0.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$65.72 93.89 coins	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$57.46 82.08 coins	0.8%	25	14.4	1.74×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33,333	$52.24 74.63 coins	0.0%	1	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$43.77 62.53 coins	37.4%	880	863.1	1.02×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$39.37 56.24 coins	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$38.76 55.37 coins	0.3%	11	8.6	1.27×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$28.10 40.14 coins	4.0%	168	143.8	1.17×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,333	$23.00 32.86 coins	0.2%	7	8.6	0.81×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$22.61 32.3 coins	0.1%	5	2.9	1.74×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$18.82 26.88 coins	5.4%	283	287.7	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$13.66 19.51 coins	1.4%	107	100.7	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$11.83 16.9 coins	1.2%	96	100.7	0.95×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$11.45 16.35 coins	6.5%	520	575.4	0.90×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$11.26 16.08 coins	12.8%	1,145	1150.8	0.99×
Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 100	$4.93 7.04 coins	1.4%	290	287.7	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 164	$4.84 6.91 coins	0.8%	176	175.5	1.00×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.12 5.89 coins	2.3%	601	575.4	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.05 5.78 coins	4.6%	1,168	1150.8	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$3.83 5.47 coins	2.2%	578	575.4	1.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$3.27 4.67 coins	2.8%	832	863.1	0.96×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$2.51 3.58 coins	5.0%	1,971	2013.8	0.98×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.55 2.21 coins	1.8%	1,214	1150.8	1.05×
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$0.78 1.12 coins	2.5%	3,203	3164.6	1.01×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.69 0.98 coins	1.4%	1,911	2013.8	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.51 0.73 coins	1.0%	2,028	2013.8	1.01×
Negev \| Dazzle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.23 0.33 coins	1.3%	5,730	5753.8	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.17 0.24 coins	1.0%	5,807	5753.8	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covertUser#562$3.895.55 coins$284406 coins73.15x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Dazzle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$3.865.52 coins$0.230.33 coins0.06x1m

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.865.52 coins$0.781.12 coins0.20x1m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.865.52 coins$0.690.98 coins0.18x1m

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified$3.865.52 coins$2.513.58 coins0.65x1m

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.865.52 coins$0.781.12 coins0.20x1m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBiceps |$3.865.52 coins$0.510.73 coins0.13x1m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.865.52 coins$0.510.73 coins0.13x1m

R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$3.865.52 coins$0.781.12 coins0.20x1m

AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$3.865.52 coins$1.552.21 coins0.40x1m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBiceps |$3.865.52 coins$0.510.73 coins0.13x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$3.86	90.86%	29
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$3.88	90.90%	29
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$3.89	90.96%	29
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$3.88	90.97%	29
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$3.88	90.98%	29
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$3.89	90.85%	29
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.88	90.99%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.6%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 65.7%classified 23.7%remarkable 1.0%restricted 6.0%best hit $284 (73.15x)