No Way

A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.09

22.98 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $14.62 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

108.78%

31.1K openings, odds method

Variance

141.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 313

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.53%±33.534,819 openings

7 days

112.87%±14.3226.5K openings

30 days

108.78%±13.2331.1K openings

since tracking started

108.78%±13.2331.1K openings

69.5%103.5%137.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.90% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.56% – 122.01%, 31,134 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,819	103.53%±33.5	+0.7σ	odds
7d	26.5K	112.87%±14.3	+3.0σ	odds
30d	31.1K	108.78%±13.2	+2.6σ	odds
All	31.1K	108.78%±13.2	+2.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$8,677 12,395 coins	5.9%	4	3.1	1.28×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 6,667	$6,888 9,840 coins	7.1%	9	4.7	1.93×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$5,023 7,175 coins	8.6%	7	7.8	0.90×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$2,982 4,260 coins	4.1%	4	6.2	0.64×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$2,667 3,810 coins	5.5%	8	9.3	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$1,616 2,308 coins	5.5%	15	15.6	0.96×
AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,528 2,183 coins	10.4%	43	31.1	1.38×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,429	$1,467 2,096 coins	7.0%	25	21.8	1.15×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,357 1,939 coins	9.3%	38	31.1	1.22×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,250	$1,146 1,637 coins	6.3%	36	24.9	1.44×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$952 1,360 coins	6.5%	38	31.1	1.22×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$923 1,318 coins	6.3%	28	31.1	0.90×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$878 1,254 coins	6.0%	48	31.1	1.54×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$827 1,182 coins	5.7%	39	31.1	1.25×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$767 1,095 coins	5.2%	30	31.1	0.96×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	33.0%	$0.14 0.2 coins	0.3%	10,282	10277.5	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	33.0%	$0.10 0.15 coins	0.2%	10,158	10277.5	0.99×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	33.0%	$0.02 0.03 coins	0.0%	10,332	10277.5	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · RubyJigga$15.9922.84 coins$8,81312,590 coins551.2x4d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$15.9922.84 coins$8,81312,590 coins551.2x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · RubyRick James$16.0922.98 coins$8,67712,395 coins539.4x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$16.0922.98 coins$8,67712,395 coins539.4x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.0922.98 coins$6,8889,840 coins428.2x14h

★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.0922.98 coins$6,8889,840 coins428.2x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$16.0922.98 coins$6,8889,840 coins428.2x2d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$15.9922.84 coins$6,5919,415 coins412.2x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertEminescu$16.0922.98 coins$9521,360 coins59.18x17s

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$16.0922.98 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x36s

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$16.0922.98 coins$0.100.15 coins0.01x36s

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialkilersegal$16.0922.98 coins$0.100.15 coins0.01x36s

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$16.0922.98 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x36s

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$16.0922.98 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x2m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$16.0922.98 coins$0.100.15 coins0.01x2m

FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$16.0922.98 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$16.09	90.91%	18
9 Nov, 02:02 UTC	$16.10	90.89%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.10	90.90%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.99	90.90%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%epic 0.1%industrial 99.0%best hit $8,813 (551.2x)