Noise
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.24
43.2 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $27.49 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.84%
223 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 223 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCousin of po$30.2443.2 coins$23.5933.7 coins0.78x
P250 | Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specTiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com$30.2443.2 coins$2.092.99 coins0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $30.24 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.22 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.55 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $29.45 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $29.43 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.43 | 90.90% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.2%covert 17.2%classified 4.1%industrial 2.5%mil spec 38.0%Mythical 5.0%restricted 31.0%best hit —