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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$65.07

92.96 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $59.16 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.08%

2,443 openings, odds method

Variance

15.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 27

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71 openings · below min

7 days

96.34%±16.902,065 openings

30 days

96.08%±15.542,443 openings

since tracking started

96.08%±15.542,443 openings

-0.5%67.5%135.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	71	43.45%±91.3	—	odds
7d	2,065	96.34%±16.9	+0.6σ	odds
30d	2,443	96.08%±15.5	+0.7σ	odds
All	2,443	96.08%±15.5	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,443 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$9,370 13,385 coins	0.2%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$6,542 9,345 coins	5.5%	2	1.2	1.64×
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$5,156 7,365 coins	4.4%	2	1.2	1.64×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,000	$2,982 4,260 coins	2.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$2,177 3,110 coins	1.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$1,988 2,840 coins	1.7%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,111	$1,331 1,901 coins	2.0%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,194 1,706 coins	1.4%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$1,146 1,637 coins	6.8%	11	8.6	1.29×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$1,067 1,524 coins	2.7%	5	3.7	1.36×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 400	$816 1,165 coins	3.4%	5	6.1	0.82×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 170	$536 766 coins	5.3%	11	14.4	0.76×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 154	$444 634 coins	4.9%	17	15.9	1.07×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$416 594 coins	8.8%	34	30.5	1.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 74	$414 591 coins	9.4%	28	33.0	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$386 551 coins	9.8%	36	36.6	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$317 453 coins	4.3%	14	19.5	0.72×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 87	$287 410 coins	5.6%	23	28.1	0.82×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 182	$277 396 coins	2.6%	19	13.4	1.41×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$274 392 coins	4.6%	24	24.4	0.98×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$265 379 coins	4.5%	26	24.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 45	$144 205 coins	5.3%	52	53.7	0.97×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 56	$79.10 113 coins	2.4%	37	44.0	0.84×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	988	977.2	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,105	1099.4	1.01×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertLarenPerec$65.9694.23 coins$9,72013,885 coins147.4x4d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$65.9694.23 coins$6,7279,610 coins102.0x3d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$65.9694.23 coins$6,7279,610 coins102.0x4d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandDizyy$65.9694.23 coins$5,1707,385 coins78.37x4d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$65.9694.23 coins$5,1707,385 coins78.37x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Traceur$65.9694.23 coins$2,0402,915 coins30.93x7d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlFalken$65.9694.23 coins$1,3501,928 coins20.46x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$65.9694.23 coins$1,2571,795 coins19.05x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarybramboy23$65.0792.96 coins$1,1461,637 coins17.61x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$65.0792.96 coins$1,1461,637 coins17.61x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHirschbaer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHirschbaer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic$65.0792.96 coins$144205 coins2.21x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerHirschbaer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$65.0792.96 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$65.07	90.91%	25
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$65.16	90.91%	25
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$65.96	90.91%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.7%contraband 0.1%legendary 0.6%extraordinary 1.6%classified 1.4%restricted 1.5%epic 2.2%consumer 85.0%best hit $9,720 (147.4x)