Oblivion
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.97
32.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $20.89 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.58%
708 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 708 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedEl Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐$22.9732.82 coins$3.264.65 coins0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $22.97 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.92 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.09 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $23.18 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $23.14 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.11 | 90.90% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.3%restricted 46.5%extraordinary 0.1%classified 17.1%pink 9.0%Legendary 17.0%best hit —