Observer
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$451.22
645 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $410.20 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
344.12%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarytashud$453648 coins$17.6K25,125 coins38.79x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$453648 coins$9111,302 coins2.01x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$453648 coins$8091,155 coins1.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryDiemonds csgoroll.com$453648 coins$141202 coins0.31x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic$453648 coins$9111,302 coins2.01x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$453648 coins$231330 coins0.51x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarytashud$453648 coins$17.6K25,125 coins38.79x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $451 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $452 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $453 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%high 2.0%epic 3.0%covert 57.0%restricted 6.0%classified 24.5%extraordinary 7.0%best hit $17.6K (38.79x)