Octave

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.69

38.13 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $24.26 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.21%

504 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

85.45%±11.17384 openings

30 days

85.21%±9.77504 openings

since tracking started

85.21%±9.77504 openings

47.5%76.5%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	76.31%±28.3	—	odds
7d	384	85.45%±11.2	−0.9σ	odds
30d	504	85.21%±9.77	−1.1σ	odds
All	504	85.21%±9.77	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 504 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$1,159 1,656 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$255 364 coins	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,667	$193 275 coins	0.5%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$146 209 coins	5.4%	2	4.5	0.44×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$91.70 131 coins	15.1%	16	20.2	0.79×
P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$72.10 103 coins	5.9%	7	10.1	0.69×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 17	$45.82 65.45 coins	11.3%	28	30.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$41.85 59.78 coins	10.3%	28	30.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$39.15 55.93 coins	16.1%	55	50.4	1.09×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$38.40 54.86 coins	9.5%	31	30.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$35.76 51.09 coins	14.7%	56	50.4	1.11×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$33.22 47.45 coins	6.8%	32	25.2	1.27×
Sticker \| Snowfall (Glitter)sticker · remarkable	12.5%	$2.69 3.84 coins	1.4%	69	63.0	1.10×
Sticker \| Black Jaggyfishsticker · high	12.5%	$1.41 2.01 coins	0.7%	52	63.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.5%	$1.27 1.82 coins	0.7%	64	63.0	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	12.5%	$1.13 1.61 coins	0.6%	64	63.0	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Snowfall (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$26.6938.13 coins$2.693.84 coins0.10x8h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$26.6938.13 coins$41.8559.78 coins1.57x8h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.6938.13 coins$35.7651.09 coins1.34x8h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.6938.13 coins$39.1555.93 coins1.47x8h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.6938.13 coins$35.7651.09 coins1.34x8h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedArcs$26.6938.13 coins$39.1555.93 coins1.47x8h

Sticker | Snowfall (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$26.6938.13 coins$2.693.84 coins0.10x12h

Sticker | Black Jaggyfishsticker · high$26.6938.13 coins$1.412.01 coins0.05x12h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$26.6938.13 coins$35.7651.09 coins1.34x12h

USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDoritosAndDew$26.6938.13 coins$33.2247.45 coins1.24x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$26.69	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$26.53	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.63	90.90%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 8.9%covert 10.0%classified 31.0%remarkable 12.5%high 12.5%restricted 12.5%uncommon 12.5%best hit —