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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.71
16.73 coins
Advertised RTP
90.89%
EV $10.64 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.02%
1,274 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,274 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Movistar Riders (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable$11.7116.73 coins$9.7213.88 coins0.83x
Sticker | Movistar Riders (Holo) | Stockholm 2021sticker · remarkable$11.7116.73 coins$9.7213.88 coins0.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.71 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.62 | 90.93% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.62 | 90.94% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 22.5%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 24.6%industrial 0.1%covert 2.8%remarkable 10.8%rare 5.8%consumer 22.0%exotic 11.5%best hit —