Olympian

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$155.28

222 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $141.17 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.56%

188 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

74 openings · below min

30 days

95.56%±15.94188 openings

since tracking started

95.56%±15.94188 openings

50.5%81.3%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	74	76.73%±25.4	—	odds
30d	188	95.56%±15.9	+0.6σ	odds
All	188	95.56%±15.9	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 188 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,809 2,585 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$1,697 2,424 coins	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,857	$1,616 2,308 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$941 1,344 coins	5.0%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 400	$872 1,246 coins	1.5%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$745 1,064 coins	10.6%	5	3.8	1.33×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$634 905 coins	6.7%	3	2.8	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$557 795 coins	2.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$465 664 coins	3.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$292 417 coins	10.3%	13	9.4	1.38×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.9%	$266 380 coins	20.5%	21	20.5	1.02×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$181 258 coins	3.8%	8	5.6	1.42×
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$167 239 coins	7.1%	14	11.3	1.24×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 17	$146 208 coins	6.2%	10	11.3	0.89×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 11	$97.30 139 coins	6.2%	16	16.9	0.95×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$72.10 103 coins	4.1%	20	15.0	1.33×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$52.24 74.63 coins	3.3%	20	16.9	1.18×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$49.33 70.47 coins	3.1%	13	16.9	0.77×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$39.07 55.82 coins	2.5%	12	16.9	0.71×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$21.06 30.09 coins	1.3%	16	16.9	0.95×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$15.62 22.31 coins	1.1%	14	18.8	0.74×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertRidwan$157225 coins$9441,348 coins6.00x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryNxxh$155222 coins$7451,064 coins4.80x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$157225 coins$7321,046 coins4.66x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryBismillah Alrahim Alraham$157225 coins$7321,046 coins4.66x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$157225 coins$7321,046 coins4.66x8d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBismillah Alrahim Alraham$157225 coins$641916 coins4.08x8d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$157225 coins$641916 coins4.08x8d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$157225 coins$557795 coins3.54x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$155222 coins$97.30139 coins0.63x1d

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified$155222 coins$292417 coins1.88x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryNxxh$155222 coins$7451,064 coins4.80x1d

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$155222 coins$52.2474.63 coins0.34x1d

★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$155222 coins$167239 coins1.08x1d

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$155222 coins$52.2474.63 coins0.34x1d

FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedNxxh$155222 coins$15.6222.31 coins0.10x1d

★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$156223 coins$167239 coins1.07x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$156223 coins$97.30139 coins0.62x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$155	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$156	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$157	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 36.1%extraordinary 20.0%classified 24.0%restricted 10.9%mil spec 9.0%best hit $944 (6.00x)